Afghan election and pukhtoons

[malikcs]

Just saw the recent discussion between the afghanistan presidential candidates....

Only the host-person and Karzai was speaking in Pukhto. The rest, including Ahmedzai were speaking in Dari.

Che chaa sara de khpalay jabay(language) meena na vee, haghee ba de qaam khidmat sanga waki?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnZKLjad4Bg

[malikcs]

da thread mo jor khwakh na sho?

[Zargai Jan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwse5WrucDE&feature=related

[Naeem]

malik jana, I received the article below in email ...It is an interesting perspective and perhaps relevant to this thread although some of the assertions may be contested.


"The Fall of Karzai and Rise of Abdullah Abdullah

by Shandana Khan Yasinzai

There seems all efforts afoot to "dethrone" Karzai. We might have noticed as how the spokesperson for Karzai prematurely announced his victory (saying the 29000 observers stationed across Afghanistan by the Karzai alliance reported so) and how did Abdullah Abdullah respond to it with claims of grabbing more than 60% of the vote. It is unlikely that a shrewd leader like Karzai would make such a claim in advance of full counting. The thinking in many circles is, Karzai and "his group" are sensing something---probably some plans in play against them.

In this context, worth-noting is the attitude of international media. It has reported election fraud, use of govt machinery by Karzai to rig elections, low voter turn-out in Pashtun inhabited areas, popularity of Abdullah Abdullah and his better political credentials, etc. There were even charges (by the British press) of the discovery of opium by the British troops from the agricultural farm owned by Ahmad Wali Karzai to which he responded by saying that it was aimed at undermining Karzai in election.

International media also "projected" Abdullah Abdullah to be half Pashtun and half Tajak (to give some Pashtun cover to his Tajik past and make him acceptable to Pashtuns). Overall, international media was much sympathetic to Abdullah Abdullah and very hostile to Karzai.

Elections is not the only time Karzai has come under international scrutiny. In the past as well, Karzai has been criticized by the Obama administration and blamed by different quarters for being ineffective to pacify the Pashtun resistance in the south and weak to thwart corruption. He has also been blamed for protecting his brothers that are allegedly involved in corruption.

The question is, is it justified to blame Karzai alone for the entire problem Afghans are facing today? Most probably, the answer to this question is no. This is because Karzai is a Pashtun facade to fundamentally a Northern Alliance (in particular Panjsheri-Tajak) administration and political dispensation in Kabul. When a handful of Panjsheri-Tajaks control the entire system including the army, the police force, the secret services, the finances, the judiciary, etc. with full backing from US etc. one cannot blame poor Karzai who is hostage to this situation. The irony is, international forces are absolving themselves from all the responsibility of the worsening situation.

Then exactly what caused the fall of Karzai? One explanation may be, he has played the role of a transitional leader and is no more required. The more probable reason, however, seems to be his criticism of the killing of innocent civilian in the Pashtun south in the un-ending military operations by the US forces and urging the international powers to go after the real basis of support for the militancy. This earned him the displeasure of international powers as well as the animosity of Pakistan.

In this backdrop, it is not a surprise that Abdullah Abdullah has been propped up as a leader. His election as a the president of Afghanistan suits all parties involved in the war on terror. As a Tajak and associated with the Northern Alliance, he has a history of aversion to Pashtuns and will not make much fuss about Pashtun massacre in southern Afghanistan. He is also accepatable to Pakistanis who don't like a strong Pashtun voice in Kabul. Moreover, occupation/imperial powers historically have sought minority leaders to quell the resistance by the majority and suppress its voice. Maliki Government of Iraq is a case in point.

The results of the Afghan election will most probably lead to run-off between the two top candidates. With other candidates out of the race, Abdullah Abdullah will grab most of the minority votes (who according to US constructed estimates are 60% of the Afghan population compared to 40% Pashtuns). To give some Pashtun cover to the power structure in Kabul, a deal may be struck between Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani through facilitation by international powers in which Mr. Ghani may be offered some ministerial position. Will Ashraf Ghani be able to assuage Pashtuns feelings of complete marginalization? The most likely answer perhaps is no. Being a technocrat, a full-time inhabitant of Dari-speaking Kabul, and a long-time resident abroad, Ashraf Ghani virtually has no grass-root level support in the rural Pashtun south. Karzai is much better leader in this regard with significant following amongst Pashtuns.

The implication for Pashtuns will be adverse. They will further be disempowered. Karzai may however give some vent to Pashtun frustration by resorting to Pashtun centered politics. That will be possible if security threats don't come in his way."

[Naeem]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125094727269451467.html

By ANAND GOPAL
KABUL -- Elections observers in Afghanistan said Saturday there were signs of widespread fraud and irregularities in Thursday's presidential elections, but cautioned that it was too early to make a judgment on the poll's legitimacy.

Officials with the Free and Fair Elections Foundation of Afghanistan, which dispatched nearly 7000 observers to the polls, found many instances of proxy voting, ballot stuffing and biased election workers, said director Jandad Spingar.

The foundation is still in the process of compiling data, he said, and it would take weeks to come to a definitive conclusion on how pervasive the fraud was.

International observers hailed the elections as a victory for the Afghan people, who voted despite Taliban threats and intimidation. European Union officials said that the vote was "largely positive," while observers with the National Democratic Institute said that aspects of it were "in accordance with democratic principles."

However, NDI observers also voiced concern over "serious flaws that must be addressed."

Thursday's elections saw a record number of insurgent attacks at cities and polling centers around the country. However, tight security and deserted streets meant that the there were few casualties. Still, the threat of violence appeared to have kept many people home on election day and caused some polling centers to close.

In Wardak province, officials said that nearly all polling centers outside of district capitals had to be closed. In Uruzgan province, only six out of 36 female polling centers opened, Mr. Spingar said.

In some cases, insurgents made good on their threats to target anyone who took part in the process." Our observers witnessed the illegal and brutal punishments of the Taliban, said Ahmed Nader Nadery, chairman of FEFA. "In one incident for example, unfortunately our observer witnessed the cutting of two fingers of two voters in Kandahar province."

On Friday, unidentified gunmen attacked a convoy carrying ballot papers from a polling site in northern Afghanistan, killing one election worker. They succeeded in burning the ballots, although the votes had already been counted and recorded.

Officials with the Independent Elections Commission, the Afghan body that conducted the polls, estimated that the turnout was between 40% and 50%, a far cry from the 70% turnout seen in the 2004 presidential elections.

"In many polling stations in the south the turnout was very, very low," said Mr. Spingar. The prospect of a low turnout in the south could have major political implications, since the majority of the south is inhabited by ethnic Pashtuns who tend to support President Hamid Karzai.

International observers said that they were not able to observe the polls in many parts of the south and east, areas where the government has little control and the insurgency is strong. The NDI, for instance, lacked a presence in ten provinces.

This may leave room for widespread fraud in those areas, said Mr. Spingar. In 15 provinces, many in the south, his organization found difficulties in the device that punches holes in the voting cards to protect against double voting. "Double voting was one of the most common violations we found," he said.

[Naeem]

Australia warns Karzai to lift gameBrendan Nicholson
August 21, 2009
AUSTRALIA has warned that it is losing confidence in the Government of Afghanistan and it wants an end to corruption, action on drug production and an end to the mistreatment of women.

As Afghans defied Taliban threats to vote in presidential and provincial elections yesterday, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said the Government of President Hamid Karzai had been warned that if it did not improve its standards, international support would drain away.

''There has clearly been an ebbing of confidence in the Karzai Government in the last 12 months or so in the international community, including by Australia,'' Mr Smith said.

''That is because of the lack of progress we've seen on corruption, on governance, on anti-narcotics.''

Mr Smith said Australia had expressed its concern as had the international community over the introduction of some aspects of islamic law allowing men to punish their wives if they refused to have sex.

Mr Smith said Australians should wait to see who the Afghan people elected.

''It may be President Karzai, it may not. Whoever is elected, we want to see substantial improvements made in all of those areas,'' he said.

''Whether it's President Karzai or one of the [other] candidates, there needs now to be substantial improvement as far as the Afghanistan Government's performance is concerned on anti-corruption, anti-narcotics, on treating women equally, on ensuring that there are appropriate governance arrangements as far as its administration in concerned. If there's not there will be a significant ebbing of support in the international community.

''And domestic constituencies, whether in Australia or other countries, will also start raising that very question.''

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said that credible elections were critical to strengthening Afghanistan's democratic process and its public institutions and to consolidate the progress made since 2004.

Meanwhile, the Senate agreed yesterday to hold an inquiry into the Greens' ''War Powers'' bill, which would require Australian governments to seek the approval of Parliament before sending troops to fight overseas in other than emergency circumstances.

Greens senator Scott Ludlam said that if the bill became law it would stop a repeat of the deployment of troops to Iraq by John Howard in 2003 without checks or balances that many other democracies had.

http://www.theage.com.au/world/australia-warns-karzai-to-lift-game-20090820-es13.html

[Naeem]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/5990457/Karzai-Inc-Has-Afghanistans-leader-turned-the-country-into-a-family-business.html

Karzai Inc: Has Afghanistan's leader turned the country into a family business?
With less than two weeks to go until the national elections, the questions hanging over the Afghan president and his family are refusing to go away.

Cabinet ministers in Afghanistan were recently asked to make an "asset declaration". The president, Hamid Karzai, said that he possessed only $10,000 in cash and some jewellery. His claim prompted loud laughter among Westerners in Kabul. But the diplomatic humour masked deep concerns that Afghanistan's leader is turning the country into a family enterprise – with a favoured few being allowed to enrich themselves to the extent that it is alienating the public and helping Taliban insurgents to garner sympathy.

As the country prepares to stage the first Afghan-led presidential election on August 20, the questions hanging over the president and his family have taken on an extra significance.

The combined wealth of the Karzais runs into many millions of dollars, and it has been built mostly since Hamid Karzai took over as president in 2001 after the Taliban's overthrow. That was when his brothers returned from the United States, the country to which his mother and five of his siblings had fled after the Soviet Invasion in 1979.

Now, Mahmoud Karzai, 54, the second oldest of the president's six brothers, is one of the country's richest men, thanks to newly acquired interests in mines, a cement factory, property development, and an "exclusive sales agreement" with Toyota. Until 2001 he was a partner in a string of modest, family-owned restaurants in Baltimore, San Francisco and Boston.

The president's younger brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, 48, has faced accusations by Western diplomats – which he firmly denies – of being a major force in the heroin trade valued at $3.4 billion by the United Nations last year. He has also built up substantial land holdings, transportation and private security business interests in Kandahar, the country's second city.

Suspicion is rising in Washington that the president himself is quietly amassing a personal fortune on the back of the exploits of his brothers and a network of nephews and friends.

A US source close to the Pentagon acknowledged there was no hard evidence, but he said: "There are people who think he is much more corrupt than he comes across, but he has managed to build walls around himself."

Waheed Omer, a spokesman for Hamid Karzai, told The Daily Telegraph that allegations that the president or his family were involved in corruption were "rubbish".

Other American officials think that the president's biggest sin has been to favour his relatives in the scramble with rivals for lucrative contracts and concessions as the country is rebuilt.

Thirty years of war have left Afghanistan in a pitiful condition, desperately short of roads, power, hospitals and clean water. But, amid the rubble, there have been some winners as donors have pumped £20 billion into the ambitious project to stabilise the country. And few have done better than the president's brothers Mahmoud and Ahmed Wali.

"He [Hamid Karzai] has a medieval way of running things," said one Afghan expert. "He has sold off land and mines and allowed thugs to rule. He doesn't have a basic concept of how to run a remotely modern country."

But after a year of heavily criticising the president – with Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, denouncing Afghanistan as a "narco-state" – and fruitless behind-the-scenes pressure on Mr Karzai to clean up government, the British and Americans have had to resign themselves to the likelihood of a victory for the incumbent.

Mr Karzai is facing a colourful collection of 36 opponents but his financial muscle, patronage and network of support have given his re-election an air of inevitability. The country's only recent poll, carried out by the International Republican Institute in May, put Mr Karzai on 31 per cent, and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, his former foreign minister and closest rival, on 7 per cent.

Last year, Transparency International said Afghanistan was seen as the fifth most corrupt country in the world, up from ninth the previous year. Privately, Western diplomats have little faith that the president will use a second term to tackle corruption or rein in his family. One gloomily concluded: "We are losing this war to corruption."

[Naeem]

Washington will certainly be keeping a close watch on Mr Karzai. Mindful that President Barack Obama and the Pentagon are likely to ask for billions more in war funding, Congress is investigating Afghan policy, and is set to report its findings soon.

Daoud Sultanzoy, an independent Afghan MP who has called for an inquiry into the Karzai family businesses, said disillusionment with the political elite and with an election process blighted by allegations of fraud and intimidation runs deep. "Afghans know they could have better government. They are asking why the international community has propped up this kind of leader," he said.

A US Congressional aide said: "Afghans are losing faith in their own government because levels of corruption have reached unprecedented heights. Unless the leadership can find a way of restoring a level of faith there is a sense in some quarters that this mission is lost."

This year, President Obama has ordered 17,000 troop reinforcements, but the coalition allies know that military force alone will not end the growing insurgency. David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, has advocated peace talks with more moderate Taliban factions to "turn those who can be reconciled to live within the Afghan constitution". In addition, rebuilding the country and tackling unemployment is crucial to luring the public in the south from under the Taliban's wing. As Gen Sir Richard Dannatt, the departing Chief of the General Staff, said in his recent speech: "Afghanistan is a war among the people, about the people and for the people."

Mahmoud Karzai's biggest coup was winning the rights to run the country's only cement factory – a grand prize in a country reduced to rubble – in an auction by the Ministry of Mines in April 2007. The rules required that bidders showed up with millions in cash as proof of their viability, which Mr Sultanzoy claimed was a last-minute demand to benefit the favoured consortium. (Mahmoud Karzai told The Daily Telegraph that he had 34 partners in the concession and that the deal was done "in an open and transparent way". He said the plant was currently losing money and he held less than 10 per cent of the shares.)

An effortless mover between his home in Maryland and Kabul, and between sharp business suits and traditional clothing, the clean-shaven Mr Karzai has benefited from at least $5 million in loans from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US government agency, to finance a property development in Kandahar and blocks of flats in Kabul.

With Toyotas representing more than three quarters of the battered cars on Afghanistan's dusty, potholed roads, the sales agreement is potentially hugely lucrative. Mr Karzai said he set up the deal in the US. Initially, he said, Toyota was "a little bit reluctant to work with someone connected to a politician, but my ability and ideas persuaded them to give me the contract".

He also runs the powerful Afghan Chamber of Commerce, which is considered the gatekeeper to foreign investors, with his business partner, Sher Khan Farnood, the chairman of Kabul Bank, who has a major trading business in Dubai. Zalmay Khalilzad, the former US ambassador to Kabul, has said that businessmen would "come to me and complain that Mahmoud always wanted a share of the new businesses".

Mr Sultanzoy, the independent MP, said: "When someone related to the president is able to build up such wealth in such a short amount of time you can make your own conclusions."

The president's failure to rein in the business activities of his younger brother, Ahmed Wali, has caused both Western and some Afghan officials acute frustration.

Ahmed Wali, 48, is the elected head of the Kandahar provincial council charged with helping develop the province. He is has been accused of providing transport and security to drug runners who move between Iran, Turkey and on to Europe.

A Western expert admitted there is no documented proof of Mr Karzai's involvement in the illicit trade. "He shelters his role very carefully but the US has very good intelligence of the ties between Ahmed Wali Karzai and narcotics," he said.

Describing the allegations as "baseless", Ahmed Wali said: "I have never been in the drug business. No one in the international community has been able to come up with any proof."

Thomas Johnson, a specialist on Afghanistan at the Naval Postgraduate School in California, said: "Ahmed Wali Karzai is the key power broker in Kandahar and formally controls major business enterprises…Having your brother as president doesn't hurt."

Jake Sherman, a former UN official in Afghanistan now based at New York University's Centre on International Cooperation, said Ahmed Wali was among several tribal leaders who were profiting handsomely from private security services. "We are talking very large sums here, hundreds of millions, all paid in cash with very little oversight," he said of the services, which act as guards for convoys, construction crews or logistical teams arriving at forward operating bases.

The younger Karzai also owns trucking firms and is said to have purchased significant parcels of land around Kandahar in anticipation of an injection of foreign aid alongside the arrival of an additional 20,000 additional foreign troops.

He lives in a flamboyant mansion similar to the "poppy palaces" that have sprung up outside Kandahar and Kabul and are allegedly built with drugs money.

"It looks like something in Florida, maybe a beach mansion," one US investigator said of Ahmed Wali's house, "except that it is on the outskirts of Kandahar, near the Canadian army provincial reconstruction team."

The homes are a highly visible symbol of the country's inequalities. Wealth has come to a powerful few in Afghanistan, while conditions remain miserable for the majority still mired in war.

[Naeem]

Karzai Befriends Rivals to Improve Poll Odds
The Unpopular Afghan President's Talents for Deal Making and Conciliation Are Expected to Pave Way to Another 5-Year Term

By MATTHEW ROSENBERG and ANAND GOPAL
KABUL -- When the U.S. and its allies first anointed Hamid Karzai as Afghanistan's president nearly eight years ago, he was seen at home and abroad as an adept politician uniquely suited to forge compromises among the country's warring factions.

As Afghanistan has deteriorated, so has Mr. Karzai's reputation. The same traits that once earned him praise are now criticized as signs of a mercurial and vacillating leader. He publicly denounces the U.S. presence. He is widely blamed for all that ails Afghanistan: the rampant corruption, the flourishing opium trade, the Taliban's resurgence. And, until he began campaigning for re-election when the nation goes to the polls Aug. 20, he rarely ventured beyond the confines of his palace. At a rally on Friday he made only a brief appearance, speaking for about six minutes.

Yet the deeply unpopular Mr. Karzai, 51 years old, is heavily favored to win another five-year term. The reason, according to allies, foes and diplomats: Despite his many shortcomings, Mr. Karzai has become a passive strongman, a leader whose deal-making touch and conciliatory instincts have allowed him to sideline rivals or turn them into allies. That is expected to translate into victory at the polls, in a system in which voters tend to follow their traditional and ethnic leaders.

Yet he also lacks the clout to dominate the unruly collection of former warlords, tribal elders, small-time politicos and businessmen who preside over Afghanistan. That has left the country in a permanent state of barely contained chaos and Mr. Karzai as the most powerful among a roster of nearly 40 national candidates, many of them politically weak.

If Mr. Karzai wins another five-year term, it is likely to mean little or no progress on overhauls needed to bolster Afghanistan's economy and civilian institutions to complement the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's intensified military campaign against the Taliban. Mr. Karzai's office didn't respond to requests for an interview or for comment on Mr. Karzai's governing style.

Neither Mr. Karzai's government nor its Western benefactors have "created or trained a proper, competent government apparatus," said Robert Finn, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan for the first two years of Mr. Karzai's presidency. As a result, Mr. Karzai has "fallen back on traditional power structures -- the local powerbrokers, the tribal chieftains or whoever they are."

One of Mr. Karzai's two vice-presidential running mates, for instance, is Mohammed Fahim, a Tajik warlord known for his brutality during the civil war in the 1990s that followed the retreat of the Soviet Union.

Mr. Karzai has promised to reappoint as army chief of staff another ex-warlord, Uzbek leader Gen. Rashid Dostum, say people involved in the negotiations.

And Mr. Karzai has courted the Hazara minority, a key swing vote, by promising to appoint more Hazara ministers and create a province dominated by the ethnic group, said Muhammad Mohaqeq, a Hazara leader.

Such moves echo Mr. Karzai's efforts early in his presidency to force warlords to abandon their fiefs and join the central government.

The president's choice of allies has done little to endear him to a wary public. Private polling in recent weeks indicates he is losing ground to second-place candidate Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, and unlikely to win the 50.1% needed to secure victory in the first round on Aug. 20, say people who have seen the numbers. He would be expected to win in a second round between the top two finishers.

Mr. Karzai is in talks with another contender, Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister, about a deal that could help ensure his victory in the first round, say people in both camps. The deal would see Mr. Ghani drop out of the race and sign on to Mr. Karzai's camp. In exchange, Mr. Ghani, a capable technocrat, would become a "chief executive" in the new administration and handle much of its day-to-day management.

Neither camp would publicly comment. A Ghani campaign staffer said the candidate hadn't yet ruled out such a deal.

The U.S. would likely support such a move in the hopes it would avoid prolonged instability before a second round of voting, a U.S. official in Washington said, although American officials in Kabul have repeatedly said they favor no single candidate.

Mr. Karzai's style, while suiting him, also has been dictated by the fact that Afghanistan remains a weak nation dominated by provincial interests. "This isn't a federation, it's not even a confederation," said a senior Western official in Kabul. "It's a herd of provinces and people that sometimes runs in the same direction." Asked whether anyone else could have managed any better with the hand the president was dealt, the official said: "Probably not."

Building the institutions that underpin a democracy -- strong ministries, a competent and apolitical bureaucracy, real political parties -- "is going to take years," said Haroun Mir, the co-director of Afghanistan's Center for Research and Policy Studies. It will also, Mr. Mir said, require the cooperation of the people Mr. Karzai is criticized for appeasing.

U.S. officials have already begun forging stronger ties with provincial officials in anticipation of continued weakness in Kabul.

That's an art that Mr. Karzai, the son of the paramount chieftain of the Populzai tribe of the Pashtun, Afghanistan's largest ethnic group, mastered long ago. "Ever since he was a child in his village he knew how to get along with people and balance everyone," said Hajji Aga Lalai Dastagiri, a tribal leader from Kandahar, a southern province, who has known the Karzai family for many years.

With corruption rife and Afghanistan's limited bureaucracy chronically incapable of shepherding development projects, Mr. Karzai instead often "deals directly with locals," said Nek Muhammad, a spokesman for the president's re-election campaign in Kandahar, a southern province.

He cited a road project in the province's remote Panjway district. It took more than eight months for the local government to find a contractor. Even then work didn't begin because of a series of bureaucratic hold ups.

"Then Karzai came one day, met with the locals and ordered construction to start," Mr. Muhammad said. "Work started within three days."

Those who aren't visited by the president can make the trek to Kabul and attend one of the audiences he regularly holds at the Gul Khana, or Flower House, the part of the royal palace where he works.

"Last year, mullahs from my village asked me if I can send them to Hajj," the Muslim pilgrimage to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, said Mr. Dastagiri, the tribal elder. "I couldn't afford it from my own pocket so I went to the president," he continued. "I told him that they are good mullahs, very loyal to the government. I asked him to sign a president's decree and send them to the hajj. He did it."

[Naeem]

Afghanistan election: profile of candidate Abdullah Abdullah
Abdullah Abdullah is President Hamid Karzai's closest challenger in the Afghanistan election.

There are 36 candidates running for the presidency but only a handful who will pose any challenge likely to dent Mr Karzai's chances of winning 50 per cent of the vote to avoid a second round.

The last opinion poll before Thursday's election put Dr Abdullah on 26 per cent, well behind Mr Karzai's 44 per cent but making the former foreign minister a series player in the race.

Dr Abdullah, 41, is an urbane former ophthalmologist. His constant campaigning and rallying have ignited the latter stages of a campaign which had previously seemed certain to return Mr Karzai in the first round of voting.

Dr Abdullah is pledging political reform by introducing a new position of prime minister and elected provincial governors, to decentralise power from the presidency.

Dr Abdullah studied medicine at Kabul University before joining the anti-Soviet resistance in the Panjshir Valley.

There he became a close adviser to the commander Ahmad Shah Massoud and served as foreign minister for the Northern Alliance. He continued the job under Mr Karzai until 2006.

With a Pashtun father and Tajik mother he hopes to straddle Afghanistan's ethnic divide, but many in the south are deeply suspicious of his ties to the former Northern Alliance.

[Naeem]

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/08/20/a-new-hope-for-afghanistan/

"In the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, journalists scattered across northern Afghanistan would periodically gather in a mud-walled compound in the small and sand-blown village of Khwaja Bahauddin to attend press conferences hosted by a well-dressed ophthalmologist with thin hair brushed straight back from his forehead and a close-trimmed black beard.

His English was flawless and devoid of slang or colloquialisms. Years earlier, during the anti-Soviet Afghan jihad, he had been taught English by agents in Britain’s MI6 foreign intelligence service. He was patient with the questions thrown at him, but his back seemed to stiffen when asked how much the Americans and British were sharing intelligence they had gathered on the Taliban with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, of which he was a member.

“We don’t need any advice,” he replied"

[Naeem]

http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0823/p06s01-wosc.html

Afghan elections: What might happen next
With President Hamid Karzai's rivals crying foul, the incumbent may win by solid margins but lose legitimacy – which could hamper counterinsurgency efforts.
By Ben Arnoldy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor


Kabul, Afghanistan - Reports of fraud continue to pile up in Afghanistan's presidential election, causing Afghan experts to suspect that President Hamid Karzai will win by solid margins without legitimacy.

On Saturday, presidential candidate Mirwaiz Yasini walked into the retro-chic Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul and dumped hundreds of ripped up ballots in the lobby – discarded votes for the opposition, he said. Journalists on a break between optimistic press conferences from international monitoring groups and the election commission rifled through the sheets.

They contained votes for candidates other than Mr. Karzai and bore a stamp from polling station workers. Mr. Yasini said his campaign workers found these scattered around the southern city of Spin Boldak after his observers were barred from polling stations by border police.

Karzai's main challenger, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, added to the allegations of fraud Sunday, saying ballots marked for Karzai were coming in from volatile southern districts where no vote was held, and that turnout was being reported as 40 percent in areas where only 10 percent of the people voted.

"This is a sign or evidence of widespread rigging," Abdullah said, adding that he has no faith in the chief of the country's Independent Election Commission, a Karzai appointee.

Official vote tallies – legitimate or not – are not expected until Sept. 7, while some preliminary figures may be released Tuesday. With Karzai's rivals accusing the incumbent of committing fraud to win without a runoff, the vote count leaves open the possibility for four scenarios. All hold pitfalls for Afghanistan's Western backers.

A big Karzai win

If Mr. Karzai manages to win handily, many Afghans will believe the election was stolen.

"I will congratulate Mr. Karzai on his successful coup," says Afghan analyst Waheed Muzdja in Kabul.

This result spells serious trouble for NATO's counterinsurgency effort here. Security experts emphasize that it's extremely difficult to defeat an insurgency when coalition forces are supporting a government with no legitimacy. Support back home for the war may also fade faster.

One solution – declaring the election invalid – appears nearly impossible.

An independent body called the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has been set up to adjudicate fraud complaints. But its mandate is limited to investigate specific incidents – not to determine whether they may add up to a thrown election.

"We're not talking about outcomes in terms of the ranking of the candidates and who's going to be the winner," says Maarten Halff, an ECC commissioner. "It's impossible to tell from each incident how many votes would be involved."

Their findings go to the Independent Election Commission, which has the power to certify the results, but was appointed by the president with no outside oversight.

The international community could cry foul, but may be disinclined to do so.

"The international community has no choice – it has to come out at the end saying it was reasonably fair," says Marvin Weinbaum, scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "We gave this election such a critical status, we really imbued it with such importance that to say it failed is to suggest there's no legitimate government."

Nor do many here expect an Iranian-style popular uprising in the streets. Karzai's main rival, Abdullah Abdullah, says he rules out encouraging civil disobedience, saying it would be "too risky."

A close win for Karzai

Many Western stakeholders are seeing a 51 percent win for Karzai as the best-case outcome, says an international election monitor barred from speaking openly during the election process. Such a result would avoid a messy run-off but perhaps appear credible.

However, it would also rob Karzai of much claim to a popular mandate. He would emerge more dependent on controversial warlords who backed him during the election in exchange for positions at the table.

A runoff

If no candidate emerges with a majority of the votes, a runoff between the top two vote getters is scheduled for Oct. 1. Privately, some educated Afghans in Kabul speak with dread about this outcome. They worry the country remains too weak to organize a run-off so soon and keep supporters – and their passions – in check.

For those officials whose job security depends on Karzai's return, a run-off could come as a surprise – and a fright.

"Ministers, governors, members of Parliament, police chiefs – if they see that their jobs are really at risk, of course they will do their best to keep it," says Fahim Dashty, editor of the local newspaper Kabul Weekly.

Abdullah, the candidate, says that the international community is committed to a run-off and that it can be arranged. He says his campaign is ready as well, but may need to raise more funds to pay to transport voters to the polls on Oct. 1.

Abdullah eventually wins

An Abdullah victory would be historic: Afghanistan has never witnessed a peaceful transition of power. It would mark an important step toward democracy.

It would also ignite hope for a changed government.

"Whether he is able to bring these changes or not, is another issue," says Mr. Dashty. "I think if he gathers a professional team, honest, and committed, then it can be better than the current government."

Karzai's campaign has argued that an Abdullah presidency could cause further unrest among Afghanistan's dominant ethnic group, the Pashtuns, who historically have chafed at being ruled by leaders who are not fully Pashtun. Abdullah is half Tajik, half Pashtun. The Taliban insurgency rises from the Pashtun regions.

Many Afghan analysts reject this.

"There is still an uprising now with a Pashtun president," says Wadir Safi, a professor of law at Kabul University. The Taliban movement does not feed off ethnic Pashtun nationalism, he adds, meaning that the election of a half-Pashtun leader will probably not add to their momentum.






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